The second half of 2025 is packed with big budgets, buzzy trailers, and studio confidence. On paper, at least. But Hollywood’s track record suggests that when expectations run wild, reality often sputters. As always, a fair number of movies that seem great in theory will underperform at the box office (or even flop completely).
With this in mind, this list looks at ten films that look like they might struggle commercially. They may turn out to be great but for multiple reasons, they might not sell all that many tickets.
10
‘Silent Night, Deadly Night’ (2025)
Directed by Mike P. Nelson
The second remake of Silent Night, Deadly Night is set to arrive in mid-December. A sequel/reboot of the controversial cult horror from the ’80s makes sense on paper: nostalgia, holiday setting, and fans of retro slasher fare. But with copycat blood-soaked releases crowding the calendar, this one feels late to the party. Its trailer leans heavily on shock and scant differences, which means it risks being a gore echo chamber rather than a fresh scare.
The original one remains beloved by a certain segment of the horror fanbase, in large part due to its twisted depiction of Santa Claus (which actually sparked serious condemnation and even protests when it came out). But, unless the director surprises us with something more than jump scares and red masks, this is headed for low awareness and lower box‑office returns. And slasher fans? They’ve moved on to grindhouse revivals and prestige horror. All in all, this one will probably be forgotten by January.
9
‘The Smashing Machine’ (2025)
Directed by Benny Safdie
A biopic or documentary (still unclear) about a famed MMA fighter seems smart. MMA and true crime are hot, the Safdie brothers are undeniably talented, and the concept of Dwayne Johnson in a serious role is intriguing. Yet, The Smashing Machine still looks risky and could go either way. Will it be gritty vérité or a glossy superstar showcase? Will it be a conventional sports drama or a subversion of that genre? Odds are it settles somewhere in the middle, pleasing no one.
It’s also potentially trying to reach contradictory audiences. If the movie leans too artful, it won’t satisfy fight buffs. If it goes macho‑bromance, critics will pounce on its clichés. Either way, niche targets might not spill into mass numbers. Not to mention, the budget was a not-inconsiderable $40m, and A24 movies, while usually acclaimed and embraced by a small coterie of devoted fans, tend not to rake in colossal box office returns.
8
‘Honey Don’t!’ (2025)
Directed by Ethan Coen
Honey Don’t is the upcoming second installment in Joel Coen‘s so-called “lesbian B-movie trilogy”, coming in the wake of the quirky but middling Drive-Away Dolls. It looks like it’s going to be a rom‑com‑musical extravaganza full of pastel sets, toe‑tapping heartbreak, and winking references. It’s the very definition of a genre hybrid, combining comedy, crime, and detective elements into one offbeat package.
Fans of the first one might give it a chance, but the trailer is leaking tonal uncertainty. One minute it’s quirky love, the next it’s emotional meltdown. That mismatch risks fracturing audience trust: rom‑com lovers want sincerity, musical lovers want spectacle, and this seems stuck in between. Basically, this movie shows many signs that it will disappear into the streaming backlog within weeks. It’s a pity that the Coen brothers aren’t directing together, at least for now, as they’re definitely better as a team.
7
‘One Battle After Another’ (2025)
Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson
The title screams war epic, but the marketing is whispering something else: confusion. The new outing from the great Paul Thomas Anderson has a lot going for it, like strong source material (it’s inspired by Thomas Pynchon‘s Vineland) and an incredibly strong cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio Del Toro, Regina Hall, and Alana Haim. Supposedly, it’ll be a dark comedy. Hopefully, it comes out as intended.
While Anderson has a stellar track record, One Battle After Another was apparently made on a budget of $140m, with a lot more spent on promotion, meaning that’ll need to make at least $260-$300m to make a profit. That’s a tall order for any non-superhero movie these days, especially considering that There Will Be Blood only grossed $76m in total globally. If this movie doesn’t deliver something special, it’s likely to be greeted with polite reviews and box office indifference.
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6
‘Song Sung Blue’ (2025)
Directed by Craig Brewer
This Neil Diamond-inspired musical biopic is already walking a tightrope. It’s based on the lives of a scrappy Milwaukee couple who find local success as a Neil Diamond tribute act. The genre has produced major hits (Rocketman) and major duds (I Wanna Dance with Somebody). This one leans toward the latter. It doesn’t seem like there’s much public hunger for Diamond nostalgia, and the trailers seem unsure whether they’re making a jukebox sing-along or a tortured artist saga.
Biopics live or die on three things: performance, structure, and emotional clarity. If this flubs even one, audiences may tune out. Unless the star is magnetic and the music staging transcendent, this is bound to be a one-week wonder. Plus, this kind of musical biopic almost always resorts to cookie-cutter narrative structure and feel-good tropes, something which may also kill some of its appeal. At least there’s some hope in the talented stars, including Hugh Jackman, Kate Hudson, and Michael Imperioli.
5
‘Tron: Ares’ (2025)
Directed by Joachim Rønning
Arriving more than a decade after we last explored this universe, Tron: Ares boasts an upgraded look, a new cast, and (most likely) a bigger budget, but the franchise has never had real mainstream pull. Gen Z might not care. Millennials are lukewarm. And older fans? They’re probably more nostalgic for the arcade game than the lore. Also, Jared Leto will play the lead role, which unfortunately raises the specter of Morbius. The supporting cast is also kind of random, including Evan Peters and Hasan Minhaj.
The visuals will be slick, no doubt, but the question is: why now, and who asked for this? Sci-fi audiences are spoiled for choice, and Tron needs more than neon and CGI suits to justify its return. As with One Battle After Another, a small but solid box office haul might not be enough for the flick to break even. We shall see.
4
‘Hamnet’ (2025)
Directed by Chloé Zhao
Based on Maggie O’Farrell‘s acclaimed novel about Shakespeare‘s son, Hamnet is aiming for literary prestige, but the market for solemn, slow-burning historical dramas is razor thin unless the quality is sky-high. Early buzz suggests the adaptation might veer too tasteful, too restrained, and not nearly cinematic enough to stand out. Sure, the cast and crew include some real heavy-hitters. Director Chloé Zhao‘s last movie made a killing, as did Paul Mescal‘s most recent effort, Gladiator II.
Still, the story of the Bard’s son doesn’t scream box-office gold. It’s the kind of premise that pleases festival-goers but empties multiplexes. Without serious Oscar traction or an unexpected viral moment, this quiet period piece will likely vanish into the mist of other polite period dramas. Hopefully, Hamnet defies the naysayers, but that looks far from guaranteed. Shakespeare may be eternal, but not everything inspired by him is.
3
‘The Roses’ (2025)
Directed by Jay Roach
Jay Roach‘s latest effort will be a remake of the fantastic 1989 movie The War of the Roses, starring Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner. The cast is killer: Benedict Cumberbatch, Olivia Colman, Andy Samberg, Kate McKinnon, Alison Janney, Ncuti Gatwa. It’ll be awesome if Roach and co. pull this ambitious gambit off, but there are risks here. This could be the kind of “darkly funny” movie that gets swallowed by tonal inconsistency. Black comedies live or die on edge, and The War of the Roses may wind up soft around the middle.
Plus, this is another case where the original remains solid and doesn’t necessarily scream out for a remake, placing the filmmakers in a bit of a bind. Do they stick to the original and make this a pretty close remake, or do they get looser and weirder with it? Both paths could flop. The War of the Roses is set to come out in late August, meaning it won’t be long til we find out.
2
‘Eddington’ (2025)
Directed by Ari Aster
A new Ari Aster movie is a cause for excitement, but also a little concern. The man is a legend and has already given us two masterpieces, but Beau is Afraid was a little too strange for its own good and made a huge loss at the box office. The upcoming Eddington, an action comedy, could be another case of Aster’s oddness overshadowing his genius. Once again, the runtime (149 minutes) suggests a bizarro odyssey that will please Aster diehards but alienate he casual viewer.
The movie is set for release in mid-July, but it received only mixed to positive reviews at Cannes. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is currently 67%, in contrast to the 90% for Hereditary and the 83% for Midsommar. That said, the cast list is certainly intriguing: Joaquin Phoenix, Pedro Pascal, Emma Stone, Austin Butler. What a mix. Even if it fails, it might be a fascinating failure at the very least.
1
‘A Big Bold Beautiful Journey’ (2025)
Directed by Kogonada
With a title like this, the film sets itself up for either triumph or total humiliation. Little is known about the plot beyond something about two strangers being drawn together and vague suggestions of magical realism. It’s directed by video essayist turned director Kogonada, the brains behind Columbus and After Yang, both solid. It also boasts megawatt star power in Colin Farrell and Margot Robbie. The supporting cast is decent too, including Lily Rabe, Jodie Turner-Smith, and Phoebe Waller-Bridge. Farrell was great in After Yang, so he and Kogonada will probably work well together this time around, too.
Nevertheless, success is not assured for A Big Bold Beautiful Journey. After all, Sony reportedly acquired the film for $50m, so it’ll have to perform strongly in order to make a profit. By contrast, Kogonada’s first two features only made about $1m each. In other words, a big, bold gamble. Release date: September 19.